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 Sujet du message: 1050 pour fin 2014 ?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2014 13:14 
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Inscrit le: 16 Juil 2011 12:54
Messages: 682
Salut à tous,

Mon scénario de rebond sur les 1250$ ayant échoué, j'ai pris un short sur 1247$ jeudi, clôturé vendredi à 1235$. On éponge un peu les pertes :?

En daily
Le retracement 0.707 du mouvement haussier initié en janvier ont bien relancé en juin mais ont été cassé vendredi dernier.
Les 1218 pourrait offrir un repit dans ce bas de canal en activant cet ab=cd en extension 1.618 et voir un rebond technique jusqu'à 1250$
Image


En mensuel
Le mois est certes, loin d'être terminé mais, le risque d'accélération baissière pour fin d'année est bien présente.
Alors qu'on parle souvent d'un triangle descendant avec 1180 en base, je me demande si les cours n'évolue pas plutôt dans un triangle symétrique.

Si tel est le cas, et qu'on finisse septembre en dessous de cet oblique verte, je vise 1045$ pour fin d'année.
=> Bas de canal descendant
=> 0.707 du mouvement haussier AB

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 Sujet du message: Re: 1050 pour fin 2014 ?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2014 16:11 
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La route pour les 1000 $ n'est plus très loin ...


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 Sujet du message: Re: 1050 pour fin 2014 ?
MessagePublié: 15 Sep 2014 07:51 
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New Lows Dead Ahead for Gold & Silver?
September 14, 2014 by The Doc

This week gold and silver were pushed below their previous “higher low”; gold dropped below its 1240 support, and silver was forced below 18.70. From a technical chart perspective, this has just invalidated the uptrend for PMs in 2014, which will probably bring on more selling pressure for PMs.
Is a big drop coming on tonight’s Asian open?

Submitted by Peak Prosperity:

On Friday gold dropped -9.60 to 1231.50 on moderately heavy volume, while silver was down -0.09 on moderate volume. After breaking down early in asia, silver rebounded and traded sideways closing down only modestly. Gold just sold off all day long, closing near the low.

On Friday mining shares dropped again, with GDX off -1.61% on moderately heavy volume, while GDXJ was down -2.60% also on moderately heavy volume. GDXJ seems to be doing somewhat better than GDX this week, and miners overall seem to be doing better than gold – minus the one bad day on Monday.

For the week gold was down -37.80 [-2.98%], silver dropped -0.60 [-3.12%], GDX down -4.75%, and GDXJ off -4.61%. The gold/silver ratio was up a very modest +0.10 to 66.14. Gold, silver, and the senior miners have all broken their various support levels and are more or less in free fall. The only hint of good news comes from the junior miners, which have been tracking sideways over the past four days rather than simply plummeting.

Gold breaking support at 1240 was a big deal from a chart perspective. An uptrend is characterized by a sequence of higher highs, and higher lows. Once that “higher low” is broken (1240 for gold), the uptrend is over. This will result in more selling pressure for gold. At least according to charting rules, gold is now trading in a range – and looking at the chart, the top part of the range is steadily declining…which forms a descending triangle, which are typically bearish and often result in a break lower.

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Silver’s long term chart looks worse than gold. It is clearly in a descending triangle, and is much closer to a breakdown than gold. If silver breaks 18.17 long term support, disciplined traders will throw their COMEX silver futures right out of the lifeboat and a whole lot of selling pressure will happen. Something needs to change in overall sentiment to reverse the current long term trend. Right now, the commodity index is telling us that inflation is nowhere to be seen, and silver is the primary victim of this in the PM space.

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The USD

It was another bullish week for the buck, with the dollar gaining +0.44 [+0.53%] to close at 84.24. As has been the case for weeks now, a rising dollar didn’t help gold or commodities at all.
The particulars of this week’s dollar move changed a bit – it was no longer about the Euro, but “the rest” of the currencies. The Euro actually managed to rally this week much as I’d hoped, a bit ahead of schedule finding a possible low around the 129 level.

The problems moved to the other currencies. While the Pound dropped -0.36%, which seemed to be mostly about Scottish Independence issues, it was the Yen and the commodity currencies that caught my eye.

The Yen was off a big -2.10%, Canadian Dollar -2.08%, and the Australian Dollar off an even larger -3.63%. What do these flows tell us? They say “unwinding carry trades” to me, along with “China Problems”, with more than a hint of an “Actual Japan Breakdown” in the offing.

While the overall size of the breakdown in Yen isn’t huge just yet, its the timing that mattered to me. When placed alongside the moves in the commodity currencies, it suggests to me that Japan may be starting to lose its “safe haven” status. “Risk-off” money leaving Canada and Australia (and Brazil, and Russia) has a choice of where to flee right now – and Japan is clearly not on the list. What’s more, it appears that “risk off” money is also leaving Japan! Whether that is Mrs Watanabe or foreigners (or even central banks) we can’t tell just yet. All we know is that money is leaving.

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Miners

Mining shares had another bad week. GDX had an unpleasant Monday, and continued dropping with intermittent rallies throughout the week. Distribution is still evident, with the red volume sticks larger than the grey ones, and no support level appears to have been reached. GDX is below all 3 moving averages, and while senior miners do have buyers and GDX is dropping more slowly than gold itself, the buyers still don’t outnumber the sellers just yet. Likely gold needs to mark a low for that to happen.

Image

The junior miner chart looks significantly better; while GDXJ also had a bad Monday, it found support near its 200 day MA, and it chopped sideways along that line for the remainder of the week. This chart of the junior miners is the most positive chart in the PM complex – which is not to say this is a positive chart, its just the least-dirty shirt in the hamper. A close above 39 would be a reversal signal for the juniors.

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US Equities/SPX

SPX sold off on Friday, closing down -12 to 1986. Equity prices dropped for most of the day, looking a bit frail going into the weekend. Dip-buying was evident during the week, but the close on Friday didn’t look so great. VIX was up +0.55 to 13.31. For the week, SPX was down -22 [-1.10%].

However when viewed through the lens of equity markets around the world this week, the US equity market was one of the best. Worst equity market performance was Brazil, down -11%; the BRZ (Brazilian Real) was off a massive 4.15% this week also. “Money fleeing Brazil.”

Rates & Commodities

Bonds had another bad week, with TLT down -2.03%. TLT has fallen through a couple of support levels, has driven through its 50 MA, and the velocity of the selloff is starting to increase. 20 year rates have jumped to 3.10% from the lows of 2.82% set at the end of August. So although money is moving into the dollar, long treasury bonds are not benefiting. This continues to paint a picture for me of debt paydown and general deleveraging, and I’m now starting to wonder if there is some Taper Tantrum happening as well. Perhaps some leveraged bond players are selling off their longer term treasuries and paying back some of that borrowed money. Losses in the 20 year over the past two weeks: 4.9%, more than 19 months of interest payments!

Commodities dropped again this week, off -2.00%, and are now threatening to break down below their multi-year lows. Lest you feel that gold was singled out by the manipulators for “special beatings”, traders in the overall commodity index have lost 14% since May. Gold, since its high of 1350 reached in late June, is only off 9.6%. Gold: outperforming the rest of the commodity index – at least since early June.

Image

Oil continues to be hurt, especially Brent which was down -3.71 to 97.11 – Saudi Arabia was able to stop the decline for a day by announcing a cut in production to “defend the $100 price level” only to have oil continue dropping the following day. Energy is one reason why the commodity index has dropped so dramatically; the other reason is the agriculture sector, which is down even harder than oil.

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Physical Supply Indicators

* Premiums in Shanghai were up +2.89 this week, with the premium now +4.78 over COMEX. With the decline in gold, Shanghai buyers are starting to return.
* The GLD ETF gained +2.68 tons of gold, with 788.40 tons total holdings.
* Registered gold at COMEX dropped -1.49 tons, with 31.45 tons remaining.
* ETF Premium/Discount to NAV; gold closing (15:59 close price on September 12) of 1231.20 and silver 18.66:
OUNZ 12.29 -0.05% to NAV [up]
PSLV 7.56 +4.33% to NAV [up]
PHYS 10.16 -0.73% to NAV [down]
CEF 13.01 -6.62% to NAV [down]
GTU 42.38 -6.93% to NAV [down]
ETF premiums were mostly neutral or down except PSLV, which surprisingly jumped higher. US physical buyers like silver at this price, it would seem. Note how the two Sprott funds have managed to maintain their premiums to NAV pretty well even during the recent price drops, while the older funds that don’t have the ability to take delivery are not treated as kindly by the market.

Futures Positioning

The COT report is as of September 9th, when gold was trading around 1258. During this period (in which gold was down perhaps $8 over the previous week), Managed Money both increased shorts (+5.3k) and longs (+2.6k). Producers added equal numbers of shorts and longs. This was an odd report – it didn’t cover the Wed-Fri period where the drops were the largest, but it also seems to show two distinct groups of players, both of whom are increasing their bets – but in different directions.

In silver, the picture looked more regular, with Managed Money adding 1.5k shorts and dropping 1.8k longs. However Producers during this period increased both shorts +2.3k and longs +2.6k, similar to what happened in gold.
It is possible some producers are getting nervous about the price drops and are increasing their hedging “just in case” PM continues to fall.

Moving Average Trends [20 EMA, 50 MA, 200 MA]
Gold: short term DOWN, medium term DOWN, long term DOWN.
Silver: short term DOWN, medium term DOWN, long term DOWN
The moving averages are all pointing down. That’s bearish.

Summary

This week gold and silver were pushed below their previous “higher low”; gold dropped below its 1240 support, and silver was forced below 18.70. From a technical chart perspective, this has just invalidated the uptrend for PMs in 2014, which will probably bring on more selling pressure for PMs. Miners followed PMs lower, with the juniors seeming to find support while the senior miners continued selling off, although more slowly than gold itself.

From the moving average perspective, gold and silver are bearish in all timeframes. The gold:silver ratio rose +0.10 to 66.14, moving up slightly. GDX:$GOLD moved lower and continues looking bearish, while GDXJ:GDX has improved slightly, and looks neutral. SIL:$SILVER moved lower and looks bearish.

The COT reports this week saw reduced activity by Managed Money in gold and silver – they are increasing shorts, but not dramatically – although the period of the COT report did not cover the big drops Wed-Fri of this week. Producers are increasing their short positions somewhat, which suggests they may be worried about lower prices ahead and are choosing to lock in current prices while they still can.

Shanghai premiums are up this week, GLD tonnage increased, and the ETF premiums (except for PSLV) were down. Physical demand is starting to pick up with the drop in prices.

Currency movements are playing a part in the continued weakness in PM – or maybe a better way of saying it is, the current set of currency moves paint a strong “risk off” picture, and during those times commodity prices typically fall, and PM is just one of those commodities that has been caught in the downdraft. Falling commodity prices always seems to encourage the shorts in PM.

While I had hoped a low in the euro would mark the low in PM, it was not to be. Continued moves out of emerging market assets as well as Japan continue pushing the buck higher, and falling commodity prices have encouraged PM to continue dropping. Falling commodity prices do not disturb our central planners; perhaps falling bond prices will.

Source

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 Sujet du message: Re: 1050 pour fin 2014 ?
MessagePublié: 15 Sep 2014 08:01 
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Kenzo a écrit:
La route pour les 1000 $ n'est plus très loin ...


pour le dire il faut d"abord aller sous le support à 1179/1180$

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 Sujet du message: Re: 1050 pour fin 2014 ?
MessagePublié: 18 Sep 2014 12:41 
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Inscrit le: 16 Juil 2011 12:54
Messages: 682
romuz a écrit:
..
En daily
Le retracement 0.707 du mouvement haussier initié en janvier ont bien relancé en juin mais ont été cassé vendredi dernier.
Les 1218 pourrait offrir un repit dans ce bas de canal en activant cet ab=cd en extension 1.618 et voir un rebond technique jusqu'à 1250$
Image


1218$ touché.
Petit long, stop 0.

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