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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 24 Aoû 2015 21:17 
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- soit la Fed continue à racheter toutes les obligations existantes sur le marché , ce qui entrainera un krach monétaire
( la confiance dans les contreparties de la FED disparaissant, il y aurait un krach sur le Dollar).

- ou bien la FED arrête son quantitative easing et il n'y a plus de contrepartie acheteuse sur les obligations et dans ce cas le prix des obligations s'effondrent - d'où le krach obligataire.
Ce qui fait remonter brutalement les taux d' intérêts qui a pour conséquences un étranglement de l'économie et puis un krach boursier

je me permets de remettre ce post que j'avais envoyé il y a quelques mois


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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 24 Aoû 2015 23:13 
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Effectivement, la marge de manœuvre se réduit furieusement pour la FED.
Et en 5 jours, le Dow a finalement plongé de -9,54 %.
C'est très significatif. Les problèmes ne peuvent plus être complètement ignorés, camouflés ...
Le vernis commence à se fissurer semble-t-il.

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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 27 Aoû 2015 09:10 
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on va enfin y arriver .... après toute cette attente


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-2 ... -treasurys

Citer:
What Would Happen If Everyone Joins China In Dumping Treasurys?
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/26/2015 18:10 -0400


On Tuesday evening in "Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks," we quantified the cost of China’s near daily open FX operations in support of the yuan.

As BNP’s Mole Hau put it on Monday, "whereas the daily fix was previously used to fix the spot rate, the PBoC now seemingly fixes the spot rate to determine the daily fix, [thus] the role of the market in determining the exchange rate has, if anything, been reduced in the short term." And a reduced role for the market means a larger role for the PBoC and that, in turn, means burning through more FX reserves to steady the yuan.

Translation and quantification (with the latter coming courtesy of SocGen): as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has sold a gargantuan $106 (or more) billion in US paper just as a result of the change in the currency regime.

Notably, that means China has sold as much in Treasurys in the past 2 weeks - over $100 billion - as it has sold in the entire first half of the year. Today, we got what looks like confirmation late in the session when Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks, reported "substantial selling pressure in long end Treasuries coming from Far East."

The question or rather, the series of questions, that need to be considered going forward are:

"What happens when China liquidates all of its Treasury holdings is anyone's guess, and an even better question is will anyone else decide to join China as its sells US Treasurys at a never before seen pace, and best of all: will the Fed just sit there and watch as the biggest offshore holder of US Treasurys liquidates its entire inventory…"

And make no mistake, these are timely questions, because the combination of collapsing commodity prices, China’s devaluation, and the threat of a Fed hike have put enormous pressure on EM currencies the world over and that, in turn, means a drawdown of EM FX reserves and pressure on DM bonds. As JP Morgan put it last month, "the sharp reversal in EM FX reserve accumulation between Q1 and Q2 is consistent with the sharp reversal in DM core bond markets. Core bond market yields collapsed in Q1 but saw a big rise in Q2. This is a good reminder of how important FX reserve managers remain in driving core bond markets."

Indeed. And just how important, you ask, is that for US Treasurys and, in turn, for Fed policy going forward? For the answer, we go to Citi:

Taken in isolation, a reserves drop of 1% of USD GDP (=$178bn) would infer a rise in 10y UST yields by 15-35bp based on a range of academic studies.

And more to the point:

Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year. This amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp (35bp*3.07).

In other words, if EM currencies remain under pressure - and there is every reason to believe that they well - the reserve drawdown necessary to stabilize currencies and maintain unsustainable pegs means more Treasury liquidation and massive upward pressure on yields. Here's a look at EM reserve accumlation vs. the yield on the 10Y (inverted):
Image
As for what this means in the US, we go to Citi one more time:

These moves are unlikely to happen in a vacuum. For instance, any move by these magnitudes would choke off the US housing market and see the Fed stand still or ease.

Of course one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4.

And as we never, ever tire of reminding readers, it all harkens back to last November...


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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 27 Aoû 2015 10:56 
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silvermath a écrit:
Notably, that means China has sold as much in Treasurys in the past 2 weeks - over $100 billion - as it has sold in the entire first half of the year.

Si c'est le cas, ça se verra ici le 15 octobre: http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfhhis01.txt

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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 27 Aoû 2015 14:48 
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Dantec a écrit:
Si c'est le cas, ça se verra ici le 15 octobre: http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfhhis01.txt


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-2 ... washington

Citer:
It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2015 07:27 -0400


On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once.

We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.

But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted "substantial selling pressure" in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the "Far East", and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.

Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg:

China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.



Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.



The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.


Image


The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.

Now that what has been glaringly obvious for at least six months has been given the official mainstream stamp of fact-based approval, the all-clear has been given for rampant speculation on what exactly this means for US monetary policy. Here’s Bloomberg again:

China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”



“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”

As we discussed on Wednesday evening, we do, thanks to a review of the extant academic literature undertaken by Citi, have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. "Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year - this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ," Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.

In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there's an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it's not just China that's in the process of liquidating USD assets.

The clear takeaway is that there's a substantial amount of upward pressure building for UST yields and that is a decisively undesirable situation for the Fed to find itself in going into September. On Wednesday we summed the situation up as follows: "one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4."

Well now that China's UST liquidation frenzy has reached a pace where it could no longer be swept under the rug and/or played down as inconsequential, and now that Bill Dudley has officially opened the door for "additional quantitative easing", it would appear that the only way to prevent China and EM UST liquidation from, as Citi puts it, "choking off the US housing market," and exerting a kind of forced tightening via the UST transmission channel, will be for the FOMC to usher in QE4.
Average:


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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 27 Aoû 2015 14:51 
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... an-support

Citer:
China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan
Bloomberg News
August 27, 2015 — 8:55 AM CEST Updated on August 27, 2015 — 12:11 PM CEST
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China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.

Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.

The People’s Bank of China has been offloading dollars and buying yuan to support the exchange rate, a policy that’s contributed to a $315 billion drop in its foreign-exchange reserves over the last 12 months. The $3.65 trillion stockpile will fall by some $40 billion a month in the remainder of 2015 because of the intervention, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”
Gross’s Tweet

The PBOC and the U.S. Embassy in Beijing didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Bill Gross, who manages the $1.47 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, tweeted Wednesday “China selling long Treasuries ????”.

Two-year Treasuries erased an earlier advance, with their yield little changed at 0.67 percent as of 11 a.m. in London. It fell as much as two basis points. The 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.15 percent, near to its average for the past month.

Chinese sales of U.S. government debt may have kept yields from falling this month as a selloff in global stocks prompted investors to favor the safest assets.

“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”
China Holdings

The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.

The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.

The yuan rose 0.08 percent to 6.4053 per dollar on Thursday in Shanghai, trimming this month’s decline to 3.1 percent. Daily fluctuations have averaged less than 0.1 percent in the past two weeks as the PBOC intervened to bring stability following the Aug. 11 devaluation. The nation’s Treasury holdings will stop falling once the intervention stops and the currency is freely floating, said Steve Wang, chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong.

“Strategically, it probably has been China’s intention to find the right time to lighten up its excessive accumulation of U.S. Treasuries,” he said.


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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 27 Aoû 2015 21:05 
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"En net rebond, les Bourses européennes tentent d'oublier la récente dégringolade" (AFP)
http://www.lalibre.be/economie/actualit ... a437c97e6f

Ne vous inquiétez pas, tout va bien au pays de Walt Disney ...
En fait tout a toujours très bien été, mais on ne le savait pas.
C'est pour ça que la bourse américaine a bêtement chuté (2000 milliards de dollars en 6 séances tout de même).
Mais maintenant la nouvelle est tombée et toutes les bourses sont au vert : la croissance de la première économie mondiale, celle des Etats-Unis bien sûr, a été révisée à la hausse pour le deuxième trimestre à +3,7% en "rythme annualisé" !
Donc tout va bien. La croissance est là puisqu'on vous le dit.

En tout cas, il y a quelque chose qui continue de croitre inexorablement en Amérique, c'est la dette : 18362 milliards de dollars actuellement.

Source : http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

Si les Chinois commencent effectivement à revendre ce merveilleux papier, que va-t-il se passer ?

La suite au prochain épisode ...

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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 28 Aoû 2015 12:31 
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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2015 19:20 
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"USA: le secrétaire au Trésor demande au Congrès de relever le plafond de la dette" (Lefigaro.fr avec AFP)
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2015/0 ... -dette.php

Petite info comme ça en passant, oh un détail rassurez-vous : le secrétaire américain au Trésor, Jack Lew, vient d'adresser une lettre au Congrès pour le presser de relever le plafond de la dette.
Oui vous savez cette minuscule dette américaine dont le montant est si infime, 18384 milliards de tout petits dollars de papier, que ça ne vaut vraiment pas la peine d'en parler, surtout lorsqu'il s'agit de la dette de la première économie de la planète.
Bref un détail que le Congrès va sûrement régler sans l'ombre d'une hésitation tant cette question est de peu d'importance quand on paie ses dettes dans la monnaie qu'on imprime.
La dette grecque, voilà un sujet beaucoup plus important dont il faut reparler dès qu'on peut à la moindre occasion.
Ou la chute de la bourse de la deuxième économie mondiale quand on ne parle plus de la dette grecque.
Mais la dette américaine, pour nos médias formatés, ça non, pas vraiment la peine d'en parler, de toute façon, tout finit toujours bien au pays de Walt Disney.
A moins bien sûr que la politique ne s'en mêle ...

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 Sujet du message: Re: USA : crise, budget, dette, bourse et krach
MessagePublié: 15 Sep 2015 20:43 
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"La BNS, un pion au service des Etats-Unis ?"
Voilà une question provocatrice !
C'est l'économiste Liliane Held-Khawam qui la pose et qui tente d'y répondre ici : https://lilianeheldkhawam.wordpress.com ... 9/14/2937/

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