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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 17 Jan 2018 22:10 
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de retour sur le fofo


le Dow Jones à 26 115
ça fait plaisir à voir !!
c'est Noël tous les jours à Wallstreet


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 00:49 
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Bonsoir Onc'Picsou! Labesse, crouiya? Mamkatguid, agouma?

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"Le droit est l'intermède des forces" Paul Valéry

"La vérité? Une marotte d'adolescent, ou un symptôme de sénilité." Cioran (La tentation d'exister)

Othello? Une tempête dans un Verdi. (Willy)


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 01:15 
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Salut à toi Numis !


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 01:25 
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Mes 2 frères: Rififi et Reloulou, et moi attendons tous avec impatience ton inébranlable optimisme!

_________________
"Le droit est l'intermède des forces" Paul Valéry

"La vérité? Une marotte d'adolescent, ou un symptôme de sénilité." Cioran (La tentation d'exister)

Othello? Une tempête dans un Verdi. (Willy)


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 07:47 
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Hier....

Chinese ratings agency Dagong cuts United States credit rating to BBB+ - the same level as Peru - citing political "deficiencies". It also places the U.S. on negative outlook.


Le plafond de dette us pas encore relevė.... ou comment financer les 1 400 milliards de tax cut de Trump.... ca chauffe


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 07:54 
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http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/i ... ssion=true


TUE JAN 16, 2018 / 5:33 AM EST
Chinese agency Dagong cuts U.S. sovereign ratings to BBB+ from A-
Reuters Staff

(Reuters) - China's Dagong Global Credit Rating Co, one of the country's most prominent ratings firms, on Tuesday cut the local and foreign currency sovereign ratings of the United States, citing an increasing reliance on debt in the world's largest economy.

Dagong said in a statement that it cut the sovereign ratings to BBB+ from A- and also placed them on a negative outlook.

The growing reliance on the debt-driven mode of economic development will continue to erode the solvency of the U.S. federal government, the Beijing-based ratings agency said.

In December, U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law a package of tax cuts that will add $1.4 trillion over a decade to the $20 trillion national debt.

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"Deficiencies in the current U.S. political ecology make it difficult for the efficient administration of the federal government, so the national economic development derails from the right track," Dagong said.

"Massive tax cuts directly reduce the federal government's sources of debt repayment, therefore further weakens the base of government's debt repayment."

The U.S. embassy in Beijing could not immediately comment.

International ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's Investors Service both give the United States their top AAA ratings. S&P Global has put the U.S. on a slightly lower grade of AA+ since 2011.

In December, the U.S. government reported a $23 billion deficit, compared with a gap of $27 billion from the year-earlier month. That took the deficit for the fiscal year to date to $225 billion, versus a gap of $210 billion a year earlier.

The government will have to raise the debt ceiling frequently, Dagong said.

"The virtual solvency of the federal government would be likely to become the detonator of the next financial crisis," the Chinese ratings firm said.


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 18 Jan 2018 13:03 
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LaDoub a écrit:
La déroute obligataire a commencé, les jours des actions sont comptés
C’est clairement en vue alors que le taux de référence du système international vient de s’affranchir à la hausse de ses écarts d’échange pour s’approcher de son plus haut de 3 ans de 2,6 %. «Le marché baissier obligataire est confirmé», a tweeté Bill Gross, le spécialiste de la dette de Janus Henderson.

Ci-joint le 10 ans US graphique Trimestriel


https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND

La "supernova" est sur le point d'éclater ....


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 20 Jan 2018 02:13 
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Des signaux d’alerte extrêmes

http://la-chronique-agora.com/krach-marches-boursiers/

Mais, à part ça, Madame la Marquise tout va très bien, tout va très bien. :D


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 23 Jan 2018 12:40 
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Citer:
COTD – The Pin The Pricks The Bubble
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 22, 2018
ShareShare on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInShare on Google+Email this to someonePrint this page

Over the past 18-months or so, I have written several articles on the potential for a “market melt-up,” which I updated in last week’s post “Market Bulls Target S&P 3000.”
Pièce jointe:
SP500-Projection-3000-011718-2.png
SP500-Projection-3000-011718-2.png [ 70.62 Kio | Consulté 3340 fois ]

“With investors now betting on a sharp rise in earnings to reduce the current levels of overvaluation, there seems to be little in the way of the next major milestones for 30,000 on the Dow and 3000 on the S&P 500.”

Note: For more on earnings and expectations read this past weekend’s newsletter.

I made the point specifically that “bull-runs” are a one-way trip.

Throughout history, overbought, excessively extended, overly optimistic bull markets have NEVER ended by going “sideways.”

Not surprisingly that article elicited quite a few emails and comments asking “what would be the ‘pin’ that pricks the current bubble.”

The true answer is I don’t know exactly what the catalyst will be.



However, while much of the media is currently suggesting that interest rates are about to surge higher due to economic growth and inflationary pressure, I disagree.

Economic growth is “governed” by the level of debt and deficits as I discussed this past weekend. Tax cuts only make that problem worse in the long-term. But as shown above, it isn’t JUST the government that is heavily leveraged – it is every single facet of the economy.

Debt has exploded.

(The chart below shows the combined totals of Government, Corporate, Household, Margin and Bank debt – in BILLIONS.)
Pièce jointe:
DUJeFC-VoAA6ULl.jpg large.jpg
DUJeFC-VoAA6ULl.jpg large.jpg [ 44.04 Kio | Consulté 3371 fois ]

Which leads us to our chart of the day.
Chart Of The Day (COTD)
Pièce jointe:
SP500-InterestRates-Crisis-012018.png
SP500-InterestRates-Crisis-012018.png [ 156.99 Kio | Consulté 3361 fois ]

Each time rates have “spiked” in the past it has generally preceded a mild to severe market correction.

However, when the economy is as heavily leveraged as it is today, higher borrowing costs rapidly slow economic growth as rising interest burdens divert capital from consumption. As I laid out previously, interest rates impact everything.

“1) The Federal Reserve has been buying bonds for the last 9- years in an attempt to push interest rates lower to support the economy. The recovery in economic growth is still dependent on massive levels of domestic and global interventions. Sharply rising rates will immediately curtail that growth as rising borrowing costs slows consumption.

2) The Federal Reserve currently runs the world’s largest hedge fund with over $4 Trillion in assets. Long Term Capital Mgmt. which managed only $100 billion at the time nearly brought the economy to its knees when rising interest rates caused it to collapse. The Fed is 45x that size.

3) Rising interest rates will immediately kill the housing market, not to mention the loss of the mortgage interest deduction if the GOP tax bill passes, taking that small contribution to the economy away. People buy payments, not houses, and rising rates mean higher payments.

4) An increase in interest rates means higher borrowing costs which lead to lower profit margins for corporations. This will negatively impact the stock market given that a bulk of the “share buybacks” have been completed through the issuance of debt.

5) One of the main arguments of stock bulls over the last 9-years has been the stocks are cheap based on low interest rates. When rates rise the market becomes overvalued very quickly.

6) The massive derivatives market will be negatively impacted leading to another potential credit crisis as interest rate spread derivatives go bust.

7) As rates increase so does the variable rate interest payments on credit cards. With the consumer are being impacted by stagnant wages, higher credit card payments will lead to a rapid contraction in income and rising defaults. (Which are already happening as we speak)

8) Rising defaults on debt service will negatively impact banks which are still not adequately capitalized and still burdened by large levels of bad debts.

9) Commodities, which are very sensitive to the direction and strength of the global economy, will plunge in price as recession sets in.

10) The deficit/GDP ratio will begin to soar as borrowing costs rise sharply. The many forecasts for lower future deficits will crumble as new forecasts begin to propel higher.

I could go on but you get the idea.”

Since interest rates affect “payments,” increases in rates quickly have negative impacts on consumption, housing, and investment which ultimately deters economic growth.

With “expectations” currently “off the charts,” literally, it will ultimately be the level of interest rates which triggers some “credit event” that starts the “great unwinding.”

It has happened every time in history.

Given the current demographics, debt, pension and valuation headwinds, ten-year rates much above 2.6% are going to start to trigger an economic decoupling. Defaults and delinquencies are already on the rise and higher rates will only lead to an acceleration.

The problem with most of the forecasts for the end of the bond bubble is the assumption that we are only talking about the isolated case of a shifting of asset classes between stocks and bonds. However, the issue of rising borrowing costs spreads through the entire financial ecosystem like a virus. The rise and fall of stock prices have very little to do with the average American and their participation in the domestic economy.

Interest rates, however, are an entirely different matter.

Could rates go higher from here first? Absolutely.

But bonds will likely once again spend another decade, or so, outperforming stocks.

Lance Roberts


https://realinvestmentadvice.com/cotd-t ... he-bubble/


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 Sujet du message: Re: la Phase PANIQUE
MessagePublié: 24 Jan 2018 09:28 
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1343 ca chauffe....


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