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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 00:30 
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According to the Bank of Greece, household and corporate deposits declined for the 7th month in a row, dropping by €1 billion euros in the July. Since January 2010, total deposits have declined from €233 billion to just €187 billion, or €46 billion, or 20% of the entire deposit base.

Selon la banque de Grèce, les dépôts des particuliers et des entreprises ont baissé pour le 7eme mois consécutif, baissant d'1 milliard d'euros en juillet. Depuis le début 2010, le total des dépôt a baissé de 233 à 187 milliards, ou 46 milliards, soit une baisse de 20% des dépôts.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-ban ... e-striking

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 07:26 
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Y a un truc que je comprend pas;

Avec un salaire en baisse, et des dépenses en hausse, c'est il pas normal que les comptes en banques fassent un régime ?
Je vois pas où est la corrélation avec du bank run, après je suis probablement à coté de la plaque, donc si quelqu'un peut m'éclairer :ugeek:


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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 07:43 
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on parle de très grosses sommes, rien à voir avec une quelconque érosion des rentrées d'argent des ménages. Il y a un réel mouvement de fond.

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 09:35 
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Vu la situation en Grèce je vois mal les gens aller mettre leur fric dans une banque...

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 09:40 
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Ce sont principalement les grosses fortunes qui se sont barrées en Suisse, causant la montée du Franc Suisse qui pose problème aujourd'hui (cela met évidemment en grand péril l'économie Suisse, hors banques).
D'où les actions monétaires du gouvernement suisse pour redescendre le cours du FS actuellement. Du coup les grosses fortunes grecques vont quand même perdre de l'argent, du fait de ces manipulations monétaires de grande ampleur... ceci étant, je n'aurais effectivement pas une grande confiance en les banques grecques, car personne ne va les sauver...

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 13 Sep 2011 09:55 
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According to the Bank of Greece, household and corporate deposits declined for the 7th month in a row, dropping by €1 billion euros in the July. Since January 2010, total deposits have declined from €233 billion to just €187 billion, or €46 billion, or 20% of the entire deposit base.

Selon la banque de Grèce, les dépôts des particuliers et des entreprises ont baissé pour le 7eme mois consécutif, baissant d'1 milliard d'euros en juillet. Depuis le début 2010, le total des dépôt a baissé de 233 à 187 milliards, ou 46 milliards, soit une baisse de 20% des dépôts.


Ce n'est pas un "bank run" mais plutôt un "bank creep at snail's pace" (se traîner à la banque à la vitesse de l'escargot, au lieu de courrir à la banque !). Ou pourrait dire aussi "slow bank run", expression paradoxale, comme quand on parle de "choc mou" (par exemple, le 3e choc pétrolier, commencé en 2000 mais avec des prix qui augmentaient très doucement, a été qualifié de "choc mou").

Mais, ne dit-on pas "lentement mais sûrement" ? :twisted:

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2011 10:50 
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chiba a écrit:
Y a un truc que je comprend pas;

Avec un salaire en baisse, et des dépenses en hausse, c'est il pas normal que les comptes en banques fassent un régime ?


Du Wall Street Journal du 26/08

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 62432.html

Citer:
Speculation that the government might default on its debt, pushing the banking system into insolvency, is fueling such withdrawals. In addition, many Greek households, under financial pressure, simply need their cash reserves to make ends meet.
"La spéculation que le gouvernement pourrait faire défaut sur sa dette, rendant le secteur bancaire insolvable, justifie de tels retraits. En plus, de nombreux foyers grecs, sous pression financière, ont simplement besoin de leur réserves en cash pour joindre les deux bouts."

Citer:
About a third of the funds withdrawn from banks have gone abroad, the Greek central bank estimates.
"Selon l'estimation de la banque centrale grecque, environ le tiers des retraits est parti à l'étranger."

Citer:
Greek media have reported a number of instances of robberies, often targeting the elderly, who may prefer to hide their cash at home in times of trouble.

One unlucky saver who made the headlines recently: A retiree from the island of Crete who, panicked by talk of a government default, withdrew his savings from his bank and hid the cash in the brick wall of his house for safekeeping. Several months later, he found that rats had gnawed their way through tens of thousands of euros, devouring most of his nest egg.
"Les média grecs ont reporté un nombre de vols, surtout chez les personnes âgées qui peuvent préférer cacher leur chash dans leur maison durant les périodes de trouble.
Un épargnant malchanceux fit la une des journaux récemment : un retraité crétois, paniqué par l'idée de défaut du pays, retira ses économies de sa banque et cacha l'argent dans le mur en pierre de sa maison. Quelques mois plus tard, il s'aperçut que des rats avaient dévoré quelques dizaines de milliers d'euros, presque toutes ses économies."


Nota 1&2 : ce sont mes traduc preso, donc j'essaye de coller au mieux. Et bien entendu, les articles intégraux sont plus intéressants que de simples extraits pris hors contexte.

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2011 10:53 
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Un épargnant malchanceux fit la une des journaux récemment : un retraité crétois, paniqué par l'idée de défaut du pays, retira ses économies de sa banque et cacha l'argent dans le mur en pierre de sa maison. Quelques mois plus tard, il s'aperçut que des rats avaient dévoré quelques dizaines de milliers d'euros, presque toutes ses économies."[/color].


Ca serait pas arriver avec des lingot d'or !!!!

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2011 11:45 
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Dans cet article que mets en entier, beaucoup de retraits sont aussi liés aux institutions financières qui se désengagent des pays européens.

Entre autre infos retenues :

"A Allied Irish Banks Plc, 2eme banque d'Irlande, les dépôts ont chuté de 37% en 18 mois."

Citer:
Deposits at Milan-based Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy's second-biggest bank by assets, fell 4.4 percent in the year ended in June

"Fin juin, les dépôts à Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, la 2eme plus grosse banque d'Italie, ont baissé de 4.4% en un an" (à 821 milliards d'euros de dépôts en 2011, si j'ai la bonne info, ça fait une chute d'environ 32 milliards d'euros rien que pour cette banque)

De Businessweek, le 14/09
http://news.businessweek.com/article.as ... 28VKLBDA6H

Citer:
Deposit Flight From European Banks Means Risk Piling Up at ECB
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- European banks are losing deposits as savers and money funds spooked by the region's debt crisis search for safe havens, a trend that could worsen economic and financial conditions.

Retail and institutional deposits at Greek banks fell 19 percent in the past year and almost 40 percent at Irish lenders in 18 months. Meanwhile, European Union financial firms are lending less to one another and U.S. money-market funds have reduced their investments in German, French and Spanish banks.

While the European Central Bank has picked up some of the slack, providing about 500 billion euros ($685 billion) of temporary financing, banks are cutting lending, which could slow growth in their home countries. They're also paying more to keep and attract deposits -- or, in the case of Italy, selling bonds to retail customers for five times the interest they offer on savings accounts -- which will erode profitability.

“All of this is symptomatic of a lot of fear in the European financial sector,” said Kash Mansori, senior economist at Experis Finance in Charlotte, North Carolina, which advises U.S. and European companies. “It shows that even European banks don't trust each other anymore, so they're taking their money out of the EU system. It's similar to the distrust that happened worldwide in 2008.”

Deposit Erosion

Deposits by financial institutions in Greek banks, which make up 21 percent of the total, have fallen by one-third since the beginning of 2010, while those by non-financial firms and residents dropped 9 percent, according to Bank of Greece data.

In Germany, deposits by financial institutions, which account for one-third the total, declined 12 percent over the same period and 24 percent since the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., ECB figures show. In France, where the erosion started last year, the same type of deposits, which make up half the total, are down 6 percent since June 2010. They have fallen 14 percent since May 2010 at Spanish banks, where they account for one-fifth of the total.

Deposits include money kept in banks by individuals and companies. Most of the short-term funding supplied by financial institutions and money funds is counted as deposits by the ECB and other central banks in Europe.

While retail deposits at Italian banks have fallen only 1 percent in the past year, the outflow of money from financial institutions has exceeded $100 billion, a 13 percent decline, according to Bank of Italy and ECB data.

Money-Fund Withdrawal

Some of the retail deposits have been invested in bank bonds sold directly to retail clients that pay as much as 5 percent compared with an average interest rate on deposits of 0.88 percent. Retail investors in Italy own about 63 percent of bank debt compared with a European average of 48 percent, data compiled by the Bank of Italy and banking association ABI show.

In Portugal, where banks raised the interest rates they pay savers, non-residents have reduced deposits by 19 percent since March 2010.

The eight largest U.S. money-market funds halved their lending to German, French and U.K. banks over the past 12 months and stopped financing Italian and Spanish financial firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from investment reports.

A survey by Fitch Ratings showed that U.S. money-market funds reduced their lending to European banks by 20 percent from the end of May through July. The funds cut investments in Spanish and Italian lenders by 97 percent, to German firms by 42 percent and to French ones by 18 percent, Fitch said. The Aug. 22 survey covers almost half the $1.53 trillion assets held by money funds in the U.S.

Relying on ECB

BNP Paribas SA fell as much as 12 percent yesterday in Paris trading on speculation that it was facing funding gaps. The shares of the biggest French bank recouped losses after the firm said it could do without the cash from money-market funds. Societe Generale SA, the country's third-largest bank, can cope with a freezing of such funds “forever,” Chief Executive Officer Frederic Oudea said yesterday.

To make up the deficit, firms are leaning on the ECB for short-term funding. Borrowing by Italian lenders from the central bank more than doubled to 85 billion euros between June and August. Greek and Irish banks each took about 100 billion euros from the ECB in August. Irish lenders also got 56 billion euros from their domestic central bank. Portuguese banks borrowed about 46 billion euros from the ECB, while Spanish banks took 52 billion euros in July.

‘Left With Garbage'

By accepting those countries' bonds as collateral in exchange for funds, the ECB is piling up risk, said Desmond Lachman, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. In the event of a default, the ECB's losses would be borne by the EU's member states. Lending to the region's banks by the ECB and other central banks is about seven times the capital of the Eurosystem, the consolidated balance sheet of all euro zone central banks.

“If there are sovereign defaults, the ECB will be left with garbage that has been accepted as collateral,” said Lachman. “It's putting EU taxpayers' money at risk in a very non-transparent way. But there's no alternative. The ECB is the only game in town.”

William Lelieveldt, a spokesman for the ECB in Frankfurt, declined to comment about the risk to the central bank. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has defended his institution's actions. European banks have more collateral that they can place with the ECB in exchange for additional financing if they need it, he said Sept. 8 in Frankfurt.

“We stand ready to provide liquidity as we have done in the past,” Trichet said.

Drachma Conversion

The outflow of deposits is a measure of eroding trust in the region's financial system. Banks outside of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have $1.7 trillion at risk in loans to those countries' governments and corporations, as well as guarantees and derivatives contracts, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Concern that those nations will default or leave the EU and devalue their currencies has hastened the flight, according to Dimitris Giannoulis, a Deutsche Bank AG analyst based in Athens.

People “are now afraid of the possibility of returning to the drachma,” said Giannoulis, referring to the Greek currency in circulation before the country adopted the euro in 2001. “Just a headline is enough to spook depositors.”

Irish banks have been the hardest hit. Losses on the collapsing real-estate market and a government guarantee of bank liabilities forced the nation to seek EU assistance in November. The money started flowing out in early 2010 as confidence in the government's ability to support the banks waned, and it accelerated later that year after Ireland's rescue by the EU led multinational companies to move deposits out of the country.

‘Afraid of Them'

Ireland took control of five lenders and is winding down two of them. Even Bank of Ireland, which wasn't nationalized because its losses weren't as catastrophic, saw deposits dwindle by 20 billion euros, or 23 percent, last year.

At Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland's second-largest lender, deposits declined 37 percent over the past 18 months. The bank said July 25 that most of the drop occurred at the end of 2010 and in the first quarter of this year as companies pulled money amid sovereign and bank downgrades. Deposits since the end of the first half have been “broadly stable,” said Alan Kelly, the lender's director of corporate affairs and marketing, who declined further comment.

While “the rate of outflow is falling,” Finance Minister Michael Noonan said on Sept. 1 in Dublin, that hasn't soothed savers such as Phil Carey, an 86-year-old mother of eight from Galway in western Ireland.

“I wouldn't trust the banks,” said Carey, who keeps her savings at credit unions. “I'd be afraid of them. Look at the money they gave to the builders and the terrible situation we're in now.”

Feeling Pain

It isn't easy for retail depositors such as Carey to move funds abroad. In Ireland, there has been some shift to units of foreign banks operating in the country. RaboDirect, the Irish online-banking unit of Utrecht, Netherlands-based Rabobank Group, saw deposits rise about 40 percent in 18 months, according to General Manager Roel van Veggel.

While the implosion of Irish banks led the government to seek an EU bailout, in Greece the state's finances collapsed first. Now Greek lenders are feeling the pain because they own about 40 billion euros of their government's sovereign debt. If they have to take losses of 40 percent or more on those bonds, it would wipe out all the capital held by the country's banks, the European Commission estimated in July. Greek government bonds are already discounted by 60 percent in the secondary market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Tax Avoidance

In addition to fearing a drachma conversion, some affluent Greeks are moving money out of the country to avoid having their bank accounts become targets for tax collectors, said Antonio Ramirez, an analyst at KBW Inc. in London.

“As the government starts looking for revenue, starts fighting tax evasion, wealthy families move their money out,” said Ramirez, who covers Greek, Irish and Portuguese banks.

That dynamic is also at work in Italy, according to Carlo Alberto Carnevale-Maffe, a professor of business strategy at Milan's Bocconi University. Deposits at Milan-based Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy's second-biggest bank by assets, fell 4.4 percent in the year ended in June.

“People are moving deposits into safe goods such as gold and safety-deposit boxes,” Carnevale-Maffe said. “They're simply putting the money under the mattress to avoid taxes.”

Intesa CEO Corrado Passera said on an Aug. 5 call that the decline was the result of a decision to discontinue some institutional funding and the sale of retail bonds.

“In terms of flight to quality, no, I must tell you that we are not experiencing in our country anything like that,” Passera said.

Fed Cash

European lenders are also moving money out of the region. The cash that foreign banks keep at the U.S. Federal Reserve has more than doubled to $979 billion at the end of August from $443 billion at the end of February, according to Fed data. The increase in bank deposits at the ECB has been smaller, suggesting that healthy European firms are putting money in the Fed instead of lending to weaker banks, according to economist Mansori, who also writes a blog called “Street Light.”

“Do you want to keep your money at the Fed, which you know will pay you back, or at the ECB, which has lots of periphery euro zone country debt?” said Mansori.

The reluctance of European banks to lend to one another has been on display since last month. The spread between Euribor and the overnight indexed swap rate, which reflects the higher risk of lending euros for three months versus overnight, widened to 0.85 percentage point on Sept. 13. The rate compares with 0.36 percentage point at the beginning of August.

Shrinking Balance Sheets

Banks can't continue to rely on the ECB for funding because that's a sign of being on “life support,” so they'll have to shrink their balance sheets, said KBW's Ramirez. That means reduced lending in countries where growth is stagnant.

Lending by banks in Ireland declined 9 percent in the past year, 3 percent in Greece and Italy and about 1 percent in Portugal and Spain, according to ECB data. Gross domestic product in Italy expanded 0.8 percent in the second quarter from a year ago and 0.7 percent in Spain. Greece's economy shrank 7.3 percent, while Portugal's contracted by 0.9 percent. Irish GDP growth was 0.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the latest data available.

Ireland said in March that its surviving banks would wind down more than 70 billion euros of loans. Most of the reduction will be lending to borrowers outside Ireland, which could hurt growth in other EU countries. Greek banks, unable to sell sovereign bonds they hold, will also have to trim their loan books, according to Ramirez.

“It'll aggravate the recession,” he said.

Lack of Capital

While banks say higher capital requirements will curb lending and economic growth, it's the lack of capital in the European banking system that's spooking depositors and other creditors, said Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute. That's why the International Monetary Fund is pushing for recapitalization of the region's banks, he said.

Paying more for deposits to prevent them from leaving, as banks in Ireland, Spain and Portugal are doing, will hurt banks' chances of rebuilding capital through earnings. Offering higher interest rates for retail bonds as Italian lenders have done will cut into interest margins.

“It's not sustainable for this type of pricing strategy to continue,” Rabobank's Van Veggel said about the high rates Irish banks are offering for deposits. “But I don't think rates will start to come down until nervousness about European, and indeed global, issues calm down.”

‘Kicking the Can'

German and French banks are losing funds because they hold the most debt linked to troubled euro zone countries, according to Mark Schaltuper, an analyst at Business Monitor International, a London-based consulting group. Investors and creditors worry that German and French lenders will face losses on their holdings in the event of a default, he said.

“European policy makers are kicking the can down the road, waiting for banks to recapitalize slowly so they can take these losses over time,” said Schaltuper, the firm's chief European analyst. “Until the debt situation in the periphery is sorted out, these funding troubles won't end.”

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 Sujet du message: Re: Bank run Grèce et Irlande?
MessagePublié: 14 Sep 2011 11:55 
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Merci Guerrin. Je me demandais d'ailleurs par rapport à toutes ces rumeurs BRICS et autres, si ce ne serait pas du à quelques gros investisseurs en panique pris comme des lapins devant des phares...toutes ces rumeurs nous arrivant de manière incohérente et bizarre.

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