menthalo a écrit:
Merci...
Il y a un gros risque aujourd'hui ...
Le CFTC peut très bien annoncer le timing sur la limitation des positions ... qui sera bullish
et simultanément, le CME annoncerait une hausse des marges pour éviter toute hystérie spéculative ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 53958.htmlCFTC Raises Bar on Betting
In Split Vote, Agency Limits Commodity Speculation; 'Government Knows Best'?
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By SCOTT PATTERSON And JAMILA TRINDLE
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday approved a much-debated, long-delayed rule designed to curb bets on oil, gold, sugar and other commodities.
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CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, shown in June, says the limits will 'protect the markets.'
The 3-2 vote—cast along party lines—illustrates how divided regulators remain over the role of government in the markets. The debate leading up to the vote also shows how even some CFTC commissioners supporting the rule think it may not have the desired effect.
Opposed by Wall Street, the rule aims to cap the positions firms can take in certain commodity contracts in order to curb sharp price increases. The rule gained traction in Congress during an oil-price spike in 2008, which some attributed to excessive speculation by short-term traders. Along with a number of other rules, it was mandated by last year's Dodd-Frank financial-regulatory overhaul even though commodity trading had little to do with the financial crisis.
In a series of phone calls, emails and meetings at the CFTC headquarters in Washington, commissioners and lobbyists haggled through the weekend over details of the rule. There were even conversations during the hearing Tuesday as the agency hammered out last-minute revisions.
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Both Republicans on the commission, Scott O'Malia and Jill Sommers, voted against the rule, saying it represented an overreach of government powers and went beyond the mandates of the Dodd-Frank law.
Mr. O'Malia said the final rule assumes that "the government knows best." He also said the rule failed to adequately quantify the costs it will impose on the financial industry. The CFTC estimates it will cost the industry around $100 million in the first year of implementation.
CFTC Commissioner Michael Dunn, a Democrat, called the limits a "sideshow" that distracts from the commission's work of preventing another financial crisis.
"No one has proven that the looming specter of excessive speculation in the futures markets we regulate even exists," Mr. Dunn said in comments before voting for the rule Tuesday. Mr. Dunn said the rule could lead to higher prices because it could limit traders' ability to hedge positions.
CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, who also voted for the rule, said in his opening statement that position limits "protect the markets both in times of clear skies and when there is a storm on the horizon."
But Bart Chilton, a Democratic commissioner and longtime advocate of position limits, said he would have preferred stricter caps. He said the agency would periodically reassess the limits, and they could be recalibrated as necessary. Congress mandated that the CFTC study the impact of the rules on the market 12 months after the limits are put into effect.
The CFTC has long curbed the positions firms can take on certain agricultural commodities. The new rule extends position limits to 28 contracts covering commodities such as natural gas and silver.
Limits on contracts for near-term delivery, as opposed to longer-dated futures, will restrict a firm from owning more than 25% of a commodity's estimated deliverable supply. Traders will be able to hold a smaller percentage of longer-term contracts, based on a formula.
The new caps are likely to take effect in 2012 and possibly as late as 2013.
The proposed rule inspired about 15,000 letters from interests varying from private citizens to giant oil and grain companies to U.S. senators. Supporters say it will keep large firms such as hedge funds and banks from piling into commodities and driving up prices. Critics say the rule will hamper traders and cause large compliance costs.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) wrote in a letter to Mr. Gensler on Monday that the spot-month limits are too weak and "will do little or nothing" to limit speculative traders in commodity markets.
"At a time when the American people are experiencing extremely high oil and gas prices, this would be simply unacceptable," Mr. Sanders wrote.
Tuesday's vote offered another illustration of how divided regulators remain over how to implement Dodd-Frank. Last week, bank regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a new proposal for the so-called Volcker rule, which will curb proprietary trading at banks. The proposal was met with disapproval from Wall Street as well as from Democrats who said it was watered down.
The position-limits rule met with similar complaints. Indeed, as they worked on this final version of the rule, commissioners struggled to come to consensus and canceled two recent votes on the issue.
Ms. Sommers said the vote was the most important one she has made since she started at the agency in 2009. She worried the commission would be blamed for future high commodity prices if the limits don't curb prices.
"This agency is setting itself up for an enormous failure," Ms. Sommers said.
The CFTC also voted Tuesday to approve a rule laying out specifications for how organizations that clear derivatives trades will operate under the Dodd-Frank law. It also voted to push off the date that several derivatives requirements would take effect until July 16, 2012.