C'est terrible de ne pas pouvoir se concentrer sur un document pour en tirer la substantifique moelle!
Notez que ce rapport est TRES proche de celui que j'avais trouvé sur l'intranet d'UBS, mais qui n'est plus accessible depuis 3 semaines. Je l'ai néanmoins récupéré par ailleurs
celui-ci est beaucoup plus riche et plus argumenté.
Ces deux rapports disent clairement que
l'Or doit monter à 2500$et qu'
un retour au "Gold Standard" est possible, voire probable.
Dans ce cas de figure, l'or serait proche de 10.000$ l'once.
(A noter qu'UBS chipotait à 9.567$ pour faire plus pro sans doute)
tout cela conforte parfaitement ma thèse.
10.000$ l'once= 1000 Ameros
et si ma thèse est juste...
Achetez du silver ! Car il va monter à 1000$ l'once
Je vous fais un copié-collé des passages essentiels
2008 was also characterised by an extreme discrepancy between the markets for physical gold and for paper gold. The price of bullions or coins was at times 20% to 30% above its price on the forward markets (mainly COMEX).
In the USA coin sales increased by 123%, in Austria by more than 200%. The US, South African, and Australian mints even had to decline certain new orders and had to work extra shifts in order to be able to satisfy the enormous demand.
Premiums of close to 5% are customary. In the case of silver, some of the premiums on coins amounted to 100% on top of the spot price.
At the moment less than 3% of all COMEX positions are covered by real physical gold, and the nominal value of all open derivative positions was a worrying USD 600bn at the end of 2008.
In a long-term perspective the gold price is therefore not overheated at all – in fact, quite the opposite is the case: the chart above highlights the fact that the price has seen a trend reversal.
On an inflation adjusted-basis, the gold price is still almost 260% away from its highs at the beginning of the 1980s.
In order to reach its all-time-high in real terms, the yellow metal would have to rise to
USD 2,300 – only then could one claim that gold is actually expensive.
Gold shares, on the other hand, were going from strength to strength. The development of the most important gold producer, Homestake Mining, can serve as reasonably approximate series for comparison. From 1929 to end-1935, the share price increased from
USD 75 to above
USD 500, and dividends totalled USD 130. However, the strongest increase only happened after the period of deflation (1929-1932) and as the sudden onset of inflation (1932-1935).
We would envisage a similar scenario for the future. The stability of the gold shares during the general crash on the equity markets was probably due to the fact that the gold price was fixed and the revenues of the producers were therefore stable, whereas all other commodity prices
collapsed.
Gold AND silver have always been the only two metals of monetary importance and also have a highly positive correlation. Therefore it should be possible to resort to the price of silver – which was not fixed – as well for comparison's sake. In 1931 and 1932 shares fell by 42% and 51%, respectively, whereas silver fell by 8% in 1931 and by 16% in 1932. Gold should have outperformed silver in this environment, given that silver is much more integral to industrial production and gold is influenced by demand that is contingent on the economic cycle to a much lower degree. good proxy for gold good proxy for gold
...
Augmentation des coûts de production ...
Peak Gold épuisement des mines ...
...
Central banks revising their opinion (in the eleventh hour)
Ecuador recorded large-scale purchases. The central bank more than doubled its reserves and now holds 54.7 tonnes of gold. Venezuela continues to buy as well, its reserves have increased to 363 tonnes, i.e. 36% of its total reserves. Russia has recently bought 90 tonnes, and the past 26 months have seen reports of gradually increasing gold reserves. Prime Minister Putin has confirmed that he wishes to step up gold to 10% in terms of total reserves. And there are similar endencies in Brazil, India, the Gulf States, and especially China. Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and
Norway are also publicly considering purchases.
The fact that the US has in the past made a consistent point of encouraging other central banks
into selling their gold, but never touched its own reserves kind of fits the picture.
Whereas gold accounted for almost 70% of central bank reserves worldwide in the 1940s and 1950s, this share has in the meantime fallen to 10%. This is primarily due to the expansion of foreign exchange reserves. Nowadays the distribution is heavily segmented. Ten central banks hold almost 80% of all gold reserves. According to the IMF, 51 nations have no gold reserves at all, and 36 nations have only 0.01-5% allocated in gold. Among those are nations with gigantic foreign exchange positions such as for example China, Korea, Japan, Brazil, and Singapore.
Une belle marge de revalorisation !!
China and India also recommended to the IMF that it should sell all of its holdings of gold reserves, i.e. currently 3,217 tonnes, in order to support the poorest developing countries.
China is likely to buy 403 tonnes of gold from the IMF directly in a first step – perhaps within the framework of a newly to-be-arranged selling programme. We do not believe that altruism has spawned this proposal, but rather the intention of Chinese and Indian leaders to buy the IMF gold themselves.
China will continue to accumulate gold
Currently they account for about 1.6% of total reserves and are valued at USD 30bn (at a gold price of approximately USD 900/ounce). Although China has stepped up the number of tonnes, the share of gold in terms of total reserves has still declined. This means that the nation with the biggest foreign exchange reserves has also the lowest gold coverage ratio.
The international average is 10%. We believe that this is a clear indicator that China will continue to increase its holdings. If China were to buy the 3,217 tonnes of the IMF, they would be looking at about USD 100bn (at USD 1,000 /ounce), which would still only account for 5.2% of total reserves (about USD 2 trillion). –
We also believe that many nations will follow the Chinese example, which is based on a long- term strategic rationale.
The Russian chief economist, Dvorkevich, has also repeatedly declared himself in favour of a new "Super Currency", which should contain a healthy weighting of gold as well as include the Chinese yuan and the rouble. He also pointed out that Russia was going to step up the share of
gold reserves in terms of total reserves gradually to at least 10%.
Gold mines
We envisage substantially lower operating costs and therefore rising margins for the gold mining companies in 2009, and we expect them to clearly outperform the gold price. The best performance should be coming from those companies that have presented positive feasibility studies with prices based on peak costs of around mid-2008. M&A activities have recently picked up again. Due to the massive capital increases of the senior and mid-tier producers we expect the sector consolidation to be prolonged.
The perfect storm
The perfect setting for the gold price would be a continued weak economy in connection with desperate stimulus measures by the central banks and governments, where the measures all of a sudden worked out and the economy picked up momentum rapidly before central bank couldwithdraw the excess liquidity. storm?
A new gold standard?One idea that was completely unthinkable a few years ago has been raising its profile recently.
A new gold standard has been demanded by many so as to thwart the consequences of the excessive growth in money supply. If the balance sheet total of the Federal Reserve (M0) of almost USD 1.7 trillion were to be covered by the official gold reserves of 8,134 tonnes, one
ounce of gold would be valued at USD 6,500. Including Japan and China – i.e. the world’s second and third-largest economies – would push the price to almost
USD 10,000/ounce.
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, mais ce document rassemble quelques données chiffrées que j'avais du mal à me procurer en une seule fois. 
!!!
vive le gold! vive Trado!
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