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Et si le monde se retrouvait à court d’or dans 20 ans?
31/03/2015 à 09h55
En l'état actuel des choses, si les tendances persistent en matière d'exploration et de fondamentaux industriels, les réserves aurifères pourraient s'épuiser progressivement ces 20 prochaines années.
En l'état actuel des choses, si les tendances persistent en matière d'exploration et de fondamentaux industriels, les réserves aurifères pourraient s'épuiser progressivement ces 20 prochaines années. - Rio Tinto Files - AFP
Etude-choc de Goldman Sachs : les ressources géologiques actuelles, combinées aux paramètres d’offre, de demande, de rentabilité et de production nous donnent à peine 20 ans de réserves d’or terrestres. Alors que le pic absolu de production d’or devrait être atteint cette année.
Drôle de destin que celui de l’or. Actif très recherché il y a encore 4 ans, où il avait même atteint un niveau historique à quasiment 2.000 dollars l’once, il a depuis été progressivement délaissé face à une conjoncture mondiale qui l’a rendu partiellement inutile, et une demande industrielle mondiale volatile et plus très représentative.
Mais voilà que la menace est désormais une pénurie et une véritable panne sèche. L’Etude qu’a présenté Goldman Sachs ces derniers jours estime que l’histoire financière de l’or fonctionne par grands cycles de 20 ans. Avec un pic de production, suivi d’une baisse marquée, puis retour à un niveau d’équilibre, qui fait repartir la demande, les investissements, la production et l’exploration.
Production en baisse au niveau mondial
Un cycle structurellement comparable à celui du pétrole, même si les durées et les paramètres sont tout à fait différent. Le pétrole qui aura connu lui aussi connu un pic absolu de production, franchi dans le courant de l’année 2006 selon les données historiques de l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie.
Pour l’or, le dernier pic de production est intervenu en 1995. Donc selon le modèle de la banque, nous sommes cette année sans doute à nouveau en passe d’atteindre un nouveau sommet. D’autant que Goldman Sachs note que la production est en train de baisser dans tous les grands pays producteurs, notamment Australie, Afrique du Sud, Etats Unis, Canada.
Réserves minières proche de l’épuisement
Seules la Russie et la Chine ont encore une production d’or en hausse. La fin de cette croissance dans ces deux derniers pays marquera précisément qu’on a passé le fameux pic historique.
Le problème est qu’on attaque donc une pente résolument descendante en matière de production à un moment où, là encore selon les chiffres de Goldman Sachs, si on fait la moyenne des réserves physiques terrestres connues, des programmes d’exploration actuels, du coût actuel de l’extraction et de la rentabilité des investissements, le monde n’a plus que 20 ans de filions d’or exploitables.
Risque de panne sèche
Déjà parce qu’aucune grande découverte de filon nouveau n’a eu lieu depuis plusieurs années. Ensuite parce que les cours actuels de l’or et le timing de leur décrue a rendu les investissements plus difficiles et moins rentables, du coup la situation devient très compliquée pour les grands miniers mondiaux.
D’où le risque évoqué d’une sorte de panne sèche en termes d’or, selon les hypothèses de Goldman Sachs. Qui aurait sans doute des conséquences macro-économiques très complexes… Car même si officiellement l’or n’est plus un étalon monétaire précis depuis la conférence de Kingston en 1971, toutes les grandes banques centrales du monde l’utilisent comme assise monétaire d’une manière ou d’une autre, sans parler du rôle structurel qu’il joue pour le FMI.
Besoin d’un étalon universel
La mise en place de politiques ultra-accommodantes de la part des grandes banques centrales mondiales brouille totalement les cartes en matière de valorisation des monnaies. La tendance actuelle de force et de hausse du dollar lui a redonné des couleurs de valeur refuge. L’or, qui servait avant tout à se protéger contre l’inflation, s’est retrouvé sans véritable intérêt étant donné que l’inflation, précisément, on la recherche tellement que le monde essaye de la créer artificiellement par le biais des banques centrales et de leurs politiques de rachats d’actifs.
Malgré tout au milieu de ce relativisme monétaire absolu, il y aura toujours besoin d’un étalon commun. Et l’or est le seul véritable actif physique à posséder cette qualité.
L’exemple du pétrole
Le pétrole, après avoir lui aussi connu un pic de production en 2006 et une crainte de voir les réserves mondiales arriver à leur terme, a connu une 2ème vie avec la découverte et la montée en puissance des sables bitumineux canadiens et des gaz de schistes américains.
Mais si les tendances se poursuivent sur le même rythme, et dans l’état actuel de l’industrie minière, le besoin d’or va sans doute accélérer la recherche de lieux de prospection alternatifs pour satisfaire une demande sous-jacente qui ne demande qu’à exploser à la faveur de la moindre incertitude conjoncturelle.
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Goldman warns that peak gold may happen in 2015
New report says there are only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold”
Discoveries of new sources of gold production peaked in 1995 despite major bull market
Production lags new finds in 20 year cycle – Indicates 2015 may be year of peak gold production
Production in major gold mining countries has dropped in recent years
This will provide support and should lead to higher prices in long termFor many years, we have written about ‘peak gold’ and the ramifications of the underappreciated peak gold phenomenon for the gold market.
Major gold mining countries have seen declines in their gold production in recent years despite the strong bull market of the last decade.
On Friday, Zero Hedge highlighted a report from Eugene King of Goldman Sachs which supports our assertion. According to King, there are “only 20 years of known mineable reserves of gold and diamonds.”
Discoveries of new, mineable gold reserves peaked in 1995 at around 140 million ounces. This followed steady annual increases since 1991 when global discoveries were at around 60 million ounces.
In 2013, new discoveries totalled less than 10 million ounces. While this, in part, reflects the severe pullback in gold prices – and hence, profitability of mining – data shows that new discoveries were in decline even as gold prices continued to rise.
Following the 1995 peak, new discoveries have been in a dramatic downward trend. Discoveries rose from 2002 till 2008 along with gold prices.
However, there was a dramatic fall-off in new discoveries from 2008 even as prices surged to record nominal highs in 2011 when one would expect the search for new deposits to have intensified.
Gold production tends to lag discoveries by around 20 years. Data shows that production steadily increased from 2008 to 2014. It may be that 2015 is the year that gold production peaks – 20 years after the 1995 peak discovery.
As we have pointed out for many years, the traditionally strong gold producing countries like South Africa, the U.S. and Australia have seen falls in production in recent years which supports the argument for peak gold production.
South African Gold Production
Peak gold has happened or will soon happen. The geological evidence suggests that it may happen in the near term due to the lack of major discoveries and the growing difficulty large and small gold mining companies are having increasing their production.
It is also signalled in the fact that most of the larger gold producing countries, not just Australia, the U.S. and South Africa but also Canada, Peru, Indonesia and others, have all seen production drops in recent years.
China and Russia are the two only large producers to have seen production increases.
Peak gold has yet to be considered and analysed by the international financial community. Goldman’s report may begin to change that and lead to debate of this important topic.
The implications of this trend – if the assertion proves to be correct – are manifold.
The ability of bullion banks to manipulate the price of gold downwards on futures markets will be impaired in an era of declining gold production. As China, Russia and other eastern central banks continue to accumulate gold in massive volumes with which to back their currencies it will be highly unlikely that gold prices will be suppressed for much longer.
‘Peak Gold’ in 2015? – Goldman Sachs Research Warns of Peak Gold Production
-- Posted Monday, 30 March 2015 | Share this article | Comment - New!
Goldman warns that peak gold may happen in 2015
New report says there are only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold”
Discoveries of new sources of gold production peaked in 1995 despite major bull market
Production lags new finds in 20 year cycle – Indicates 2015 may be year of peak gold production
Production in major gold mining countries has dropped in recent years
This will provide support and should lead to higher prices in long term
For many years, we have written about ‘peak gold’ and the ramifications of the underappreciated peak gold phenomenon for the gold market.
GoldCore
Major gold mining countries have seen declines in their gold production in recent years despite the strong bull market of the last decade.
On Friday, Zero Hedge highlighted a report from Eugene King of Goldman Sachs which supports our assertion. According to King, there are “only 20 years of known mineable reserves of gold and diamonds.”
Discoveries of new, mineable gold reserves peaked in 1995 at around 140 million ounces. This followed steady annual increases since 1991 when global discoveries were at around 60 million ounces.
In 2013, new discoveries totalled less than 10 million ounces. While this, in part, reflects the severe pullback in gold prices – and hence, profitability of mining – data shows that new discoveries were in decline even as gold prices continued to rise.
Following the 1995 peak, new discoveries have been in a dramatic downward trend. Discoveries rose from 2002 till 2008 along with gold prices.
GoldCore
However, there was a dramatic fall-off in new discoveries from 2008 even as prices surged to record nominal highs in 2011 when one would expect the search for new deposits to have intensified.
Gold production tends to lag discoveries by around 20 years. Data shows that production steadily increased from 2008 to 2014. It may be that 2015 is the year that gold production peaks – 20 years after the 1995 peak discovery.
As we have pointed out for many years, the traditionally strong gold producing countries like South Africa, the U.S. and Australia have seen falls in production in recent years which supports the argument for peak gold production.
GoldCore
South African Gold Production
Peak gold has happened or will soon happen. The geological evidence suggests that it may happen in the near term due to the lack of major discoveries and the growing difficulty large and small gold mining companies are having increasing their production.
It is also signalled in the fact that most of the larger gold producing countries, not just Australia, the U.S. and South Africa but also Canada, Peru, Indonesia and others, have all seen production drops in recent years.
China and Russia are the two only large producers to have seen production increases.
Peak gold has yet to be considered and analysed by the international financial community. Goldman’s report may begin to change that and lead to debate of this important topic.
The implications of this trend – if the assertion proves to be correct – are manifold.
The ability of bullion banks to manipulate the price of gold downwards on futures markets will be impaired in an era of declining gold production. As China, Russia and other eastern central banks continue to accumulate gold in massive volumes with which to back their currencies it will be highly unlikely that gold prices will be suppressed for much longer.
GoldCore
U.S. Annual Gold Production
There is a risk that peak gold has happened or will happen soon with a consequent impact on the gold mining industry and on gold prices in the coming years.
The fact that peak gold may take place at a time when the world is engaged in a risky monetary experiment involving massive fiat paper and electronic money creation bodes very well for gold’s long term outlook.
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,187.40, EUR 1,095.01 and GBP 800.36 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,198.00, EUR 1,106.70 and GBP 805.32 per ounce.
Gold and silver were both 1.3% higher last week – the second consecutive week of gains which is positive from a momentum perspective.
Gold in British Pounds - 1 Week
Gold dropped 0.39 percent or $4.70 and closed at $1,198.70 an ounce on Friday, while silver lost 0.59 percent or $0.1 at $16.95 an ounce. Overnight in Singapore, gold prices fell nearly 0.4 percent to $1,187 per ounce and weakness continued in London.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products rose on Friday for the first time in four days.
Silver fell 1.8 percent to $16.76 an ounce in London but is set to climb 6.1 percent this quarter. Platinum lost 1.1 percent to $1,127 an ounce, heading for a third straight quarterly loss.
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