Les producteurs d'or ont des raisons de se réjouir. Alors que ces dernières semaines les marchés mondiaux broyaient du noir, les cours de leurs mines s'envolaient, parfois même de façon vertigineuse.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-20/what-happens-gold-when-citizens-lose-faith-fiat-currency

Metal's 2016 advance is biggest among commodity markets
Open interest signals investors expect sustained rally

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Gold is back in a bull market for the first time since 2013, with prices rising even as global stocks advance.

“Gold and equities rallying together is a positive story for bullion,” Jordan Eliseo, Sydney-based chief economist at trader Australian Bullion Co., said in an e-mail. “The rally in equities is based on a belief in even more extreme monetary measures by developed market central banks, so it’s not surprising to see gold rally in this environment too.”

Bullion for immediate delivery settled at $1,264.25 an ounce on Thursday. That marks a 20 percent gain from the recent closing low in December, meeting the common definition of a bull market. On Friday, prices slipped to $1,261.30 at 3:57 p.m. in Singapore, trimming the weekly gain to 3.1 percent.

Gold rallied 19 percent this year, beating gauges in Treasuries, currencies and equities amid concerns the slowdown in China’s growth will hurt the global economy and prompt further central bank stimulus. Bets have increased on the Federal Reserve delaying interest-rate increases, helping boost the investment appeal for bullion. Asian stocks rebounded to an eight-week high Friday ahead of a report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls which will give investors further insight into the health of the world’s biggest economy.

“You can’t deny it’s in a very strong uptrend, and investors are playing on that momentum,” said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, who helps manage about $3 billion. “The way things are going in the stock market, people are running to gold.”

Prices rallied Thursday as weaker-than-expected U.S. factory orders and slower growth in service industries boosted demand for a haven. Growth in U.S. service industries slowed for a fourth month in February, prompting the first job cuts in two years, according to a report by the Institute for Supply Management. The group’s employment measure dipped below the expansion threshold for the first time since February 2014. Applications for jobless claims unexpectedly climbed last week, a Labor Department report showed.
‘Dark Horse’

“Gold has been such a dark horse for some time that we’re just seeing a pick up because people are saying ‘Let’s reweight’,” Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney, said by phone. “People are realizing that it represents a good value proposition. Mandatory buying is forcing the hand of all the shorts.”

The bullish sentiment in gold is being reflected in exchange-traded funds. Investors boosted holdings in gold-backed ETFs by 259 metric tons this quarter through March 3, poised for the biggest such gain since the three months ended June 2010. Holdings have been increasing after three straight years of withdrawals.

Open interest, a tally of outstanding contracts in Comex futures, climbed to the highest since October, suggesting “a continuation of the prevailing direction, which in this case is bullish,” said Tai Wong, the director of commodity products trading at BMO Capital Markets Corp. in New York.

Is Societe Generale Right About The Gold Price?
Joshua Rodriguez
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
6

Gold has seen a tremendous start to the year as market conditions and economic concerns have supported massive price growth in the commodity. While many believe that the growth is likely to continue throughout the year, investment bank Societe Generale thinks that now is the time for investors to sell the precious metal. Today, we'll talk about why Societe Generale thinks that now is the time to sell and whether or not they are correct.
Why Societe Generale Believes That Now Is The Time To Sell Gold

In a recent research note, Societe Generale said that it believes that price growth in the price of gold is unsustainable. In the research note, the investment bank cited two primary reasons for their opinion with regard to where gold is headed. Here's what they had to say...

Overblown Recession Fears – First and foremost, Societe Generale explained that gold is a safe haven investment. Therefore, when economic conditions are expected to decline, investors flock to the commodity, pushing demand upward and the value of the metal follows. However, the investment bank believes that these fears are overblown. With regard to recession fears, the investment bank pointed to solid job growth in the United States as a sign of US economic strength. Also, recent manufacturing data was better than expected, underscoring the strength seen in jobs growth.
Underestimated Interest Rates – The investment bank also pointed to the idea that strong economic data will likely lead to rate hikes in the United States. Because gold is priced in the USD and rate hikes cause currencies to gain value, it is expected that this will lead to lower demand for the precious metal and ultimately a declining value. In a statement, the investment bank wrote... “Our economists remain confident that the recent financial market turmoil and slowdown in emerging markets are unlikely to cause a recession in the US. If they are right, then the market should gradually start pricing in a high probability of one rate hike this year followed by more next year as the US labour market is becoming tight...”

Is Societe Generale Right In Their Gold Predictions?

Well, the truth is that no one has a crystal ball that allows them to peek into the future. So, there's no way to tell if the predictions are right or wrong until the time comes. However, I believe that the investment bank is way off here. To address their two main points...

Recession Fears Are Not Overblown – While US jobs growth was strong in February, the figure was very weak in January, showing that this metric is shoddy at best. Also, considering that the USD remains strong while the world deals with economic struggles, exports are likely to continue on the downward trend. This in combination with low, stagnant oil prices, poor US home sales, and lackluster consumer spending shows that the US is at risk of a recession.
Rate Hike – I mentioned in a previous post that I believe a rate hike is on the way. However I also outlined the fact that it's not likely that the rate hike would negatively affect the price of gold. While rate hikes generally lead to stronger currency values, they also lead to heavy volatility in the market. Given current market conditions, the last thing we need to see is more resistance. Therefore, when the rate is increased and the market declines, safe haven investors are going to be more likely to flock to gold, leading to increasing values.

Final Thoughts

As mentioned above, there's no one on the planet that has a crystal ball allowing them to look into the future. However, my analysis of the gold market, global economy, US economy and global market conditions lead me to believe that we can expect to see further gains in the gold price.

Gold overvalued, time to sell: SocGen
Huileng Tan | @huileng_tan
Monday, 29 Feb 2016 | 11:04 PM ETCNBC.com

COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The recent gold price rally looks unsustainable and it's time to sell, Societe Generale analysts say, taking an opposite view to rival Deutsche Bank that only last week advocated buying the precious metal.

Gold prices have rallied 20 percent just two months into 2016 as investors seek refuge from the turbulence in developed equities and emerging markets.

The fear is also prompting investors to trim expectations of further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year but the reality is likely more upbeat, according to SocGen.

"Our economists remain confident that the recent financial market turmoil and slowdown in emerging markets are unlikely to cause a recession in the U.S. If they are right, then the market should gradually start pricing in a high probability of one rate hike this year followed by more next year as the U.S. labour market is becoming tight," SocGen analysts wrote in a note Monday.
Deutsche Bank: It’s time to buy gold



SocGen analysts said gold is overvalued by around 6 percent currently and should be around $1152 an ounce instead. The spot gold price is around $1,245 an ounce.

Deutsche Bank on the other hand expects prices in the fourth quarter to be $1,230 an ounce in the fourth quarter. Spot prices were loweer when Deutsche had made the forecast.

According to SocGen, gold prices are inversely correlated to market expectations of a rate increase. In other words, gold prices fall as markets scale up bets on rate increases (on expectations of faster economic growth). Prices rise when the economic outlook is gloomy.

Gold prices have also yet to react to a recent recovery in expectations that the Fed will hike rates again by end-2016, noted the bank--which means there may be more downside for prices in the yellow metal.
Societe Generale

Another potential headwind for gold could be the strength of the U.S. dollar, which gold is denominated in. Over time, dollar strength will cause the gold price to trade significantly lower, SocGen said.
An employee arranges one kilogram gold bars for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand.
Shelter in a storm: Gold logging a brilliant month

Furthermore, with prices of many commodities at depressed levels, it is "unusual for the gold price to persistently diverge from the trend in the broader commodities market" as prices of the precious metal tend to move largely in sync with other metals.

To hedge on the short-gold trade, SocGen is also recommending taking a long position in the South African rand.

With commodities bouncing off November price lows, the rand is now 27.4 percent lower than its long-term 10-year average, reflecting significant depreciation over recent years, making it one of the most under-valued currencies according to SocGen's quantitative model, the bank said.