Comex Silver Inventories Decline Significantly Over Past 6 Months.

Not only have the Registered Gold inventories declined significantly, so have the total Comex Silver stocks over the past 6 months:

COMEX-Silver-VAULT-Shortterm

Total Comex Silver inventories fell from a peak of 184 Moz in July to 156 Moz presently. However, the majority of the declines came from the Registered inventories:

COMEX-REG-SILVER-Shortterm

In a little more than six month, Registered Silver inventories declines from 60 Moz in July, to 36 Moz currently. Just as with gold, we are seeing a drain of Registered Silver inventories.

We can see this trend more clearly in this chart:

COMEX-SILVER-VAULT

In 2007, there was more silver held in the Registered Category (top bar) than in the Eligible (bottom bar). I would assume Registered Silver inventories were about 70% of the total. Over the years it has trended lower. Today, Registered Silver inventories are only 23% of the total at the Comex.

While it’s true that there is still 36 Moz of Registered Silver inventories, the trend (like gold) has been lower. Furthermore, we have seen some large movements of silver off the Comex in recent days. There was a large 3.2 Moz withdrawal on Jan 19th and another 1 Moz on Jan 20th:

COMEX-Silver-Inventories-011916

COMEX-Silver-Inventories-012016

Yesterday, there was a 600,000 oz deposit pushing the total back to 156 Moz. However, it is quite strange to see a continued draw-down of Comex Silver inventories at a time when industrial demand has declined while investment demand has moderated since its surge July-Sept 2015.

On the other hand, the Shanghai Futures Exchange Silver inventories continue to grow and are now 790 metric tons (mt), up from 600 mt at the beginning of the year. So, we the EAST experience an increase of silver inventories at one of its exchanges, while the Comex in the WEST continues to fall.

Many investors don’t trust the data coming from the Comex, and to some extent, I agree. However, there is some method to the madness at the Comex when they publicly disclose a collapse of Registered Gold inventories and continued large drain of silver.

If we look at this last chart, we can see an interesting trend:

COMEX-Silver-Longterm

Registered Silver inventories bottomed (yellow line) in mid 2011. This is about the same time the price of silver peaked at $49. If we look at the chart on the top of the graph (silver price chart), we can see as the price of silver increased to $49, the level of Registered Silver inventories declined.

Now, over the following four years, Registered Silver inventories continued to increase to a peak of 184 Moz in July of 2015. However, something changed in 2015. As the price of silver continued to trend lower, Registered Inventories dropped significantly. This was during the huge spike of retail silver investment demand stemming from a possible Greek Exit and a forecasted collapse of the broader stock markets by the end of the year.

So, over the past six months, the Registered Silver inventories did not decline due to higher prices, but skyrocketed investment demand. Even though the markets recovered at the end of 2015, they started down in a bad way in 2016. Once this DEAD-CAT BOUNCE we are witnessing in the markets is over, I believe we will see the markets plunge once again.

This will likely push silver investment demand up much higher, thus resulting a continued decline in Comex Registered Silver inventories. The Breaking Of The Comex Exchange is at hand. I am not saying there will be a default (could happen though), but rather it seems as if the Comex will no longer be the price setting mechanism as it has been in the past.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutschebank-settlement-silver-idUSKCN0XA2RU

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7563 ... er-lawsuit

Case Closed: Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver Market Manipulation In Legal Settlement, Agrees To Expose Other Banks
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2016 08:20 -0400

Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Deutsche Bank
Futures market
Market Manipulation
None
Precious Metals
Reuters
Term Sheet



inShare1


Back in July of 2014, we reported that in an attempt to obtain if not compensation, then at least confirmation of bank manipulation in the precious metals industry, a group of silver bullion banks including Deutsche Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC (later UBS was also added to the defendants) were accused of manipulating prices in the multi-billion dollar market in a lawsuit filed on Friday.

The lawsuit, which was originally filed in a New York district court by veteran litigator J. Scott Nicholson, a resident of Washington DC, alleged that the banks, which oversee the century-old silver fix manipulated the physical and COMEX futures market since January 2007. The lawsuit subsequently received class-action status. It was the first case to target the silver fix.

Many expected that this case would never go anywhere and that the defendant banks would stonewall indefinitely: after all their legal budgets were far greater than the plaintiffs.

Which is why we were surprised to read overnight that not only has this lawsuit against precious metals manipulation not been swept away, but that the lead defendant, troulbed German bank Deutsche Bank agreed to settle the litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings Plc to fix silver prices at the expense of investors, Reuters reported citing a court filing on Wednesday showed.

Terms were not disclosed, but the accord will include a monetary payment by the German bank, a letter filed in Manhattan federal court by lawyers for the investors said.

It goes without saying, that there would have been neither a settlement nor a payment if the banks had done nothing wrong.

According to Reuters, Deutsche Bank has signed a binding settlement term sheet, and is negotiating a formal settlement agreement to be submitted for approval by U.S. District Judge Valerie Caproni, who oversees the litigation. A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman declined to comment. Lawyers for the investors did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

As noted above, investors had accused Deutsche Bank, HSBC and ScotiaBank of abusing their power as three of the world's largest silver bullion banks to dictate the price of silver through a secret, once-a-day meeting known as the Silver Fix.

None of this will come as a big surprise to readers, most of whom have been aware that this took place for years.

But wait there's more.

In a curious twist, the settlement letter reveals a stunning development, namely that the former members of the manipulation cartel have turned on each other. To wit:

“In addition to valuable monetary consideration, Deutsche Bank has also agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement. In Plaintiff’s estimation, the cooperation to be provided by Deutsche Bank will substantially assist Plaintiffs in the prosecution of their claims against the non-settling defendants.”

The full shocking letter can be read here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... letter.jpg

Since this is just one of many lawsuits filed over the past two years in Manhattan federal court in which investors accused banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in financial and commodities markets, we expect that now that DB has "turned" that much more curious information about precious metals rigging will emerge, and will confirm what the "bugs" had said all along: that the precious metals market has been rigged all along.

Finally, we'll just remind readers that the US commodity "regulator", the CFTC in 2013 closed its five year investigation concerning allegations that the biggest bullion banks manipulate silver markets and prices. It proudly reported in September 2013 that it found no evidence of wrongdoing and dropped the probe. This is what it said:

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC or Commission) Division of Enforcement has closed the investigation that was publicly confirmed in September 2008 concerning silver markets. The Division of Enforcement is not recommending charges to the Commission in that investigation. For law enforcement and confidentiality reasons, the CFTC only rarely comments publicly on whether it has opened or closed any particular investigation. Nonetheless, given that this particular investigation was confirmed in September 2008, the CFTC deemed it appropriate to inform the public that the investigation is no longer ongoing. Based upon the law and evidence as they exist at this time, there is not a viable basis to bring an enforcement action with respect to any firm or its employees related to our investigation of silver markets.

In light of this confirmation that the CFTC's probe was "lacking" perhaps it is perhaps time for the so-called regulator who at the time was headed by ex-Goldmanite Gary Gensler, to reopen its investigation?

Silver's Bull Market Has So Much More to Give, 5 Charts Show
Eddie Van Der Walt EdvanderWalt
Luzi-Ann Javier luzi_ann
April 20, 2016 — 1:01 AM CEST Updated on April 20, 2016 — 9:42 AM CEST
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Silver Jumps to 10-Month High, Enters Bull Market
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Exchange-traded fund holdings backed by silver near a record
Technical indicator signals there's momentum for more gains

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Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.

The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.

“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”

The metal is up more than 11 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded at $16.909 an ounce on Wednesday.

Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains.
Triggered Stops

Silver rallied Tuesday as big orders triggered automated short covering or stop losses, in which negative bets are closed, according to investors including Afshin Nabavi, head of trading and physical sales at MKS (Switzerland) SA.

Volumes on the Comex in New York reached about triple the 100-day average at times during the day. “We’ve seen some good fund buying that triggered stops through the recent highs in silver,” said David Govett, head of precious metals at broker Marex Spectron Group in London.



Investors have been flocking to exchange-traded funds backed by silver, with holdings rising 5.6 percent this year to 19,904.1 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Monday. That’s within 2 percent of a record 20,182.2 tons in October 2014.

“There seems to be a bit of momentum building in silver,” Adrian Ash, head of research at online-trading service BullionVault, said by phone from London. “When hot money is looking for a hot trade, silver is increasingly where they place their bets.”


Money managers last week increased their net-long positions by 30 percent to 54,885 contracts, the highest since comparable Commodity Futures Trading Commission data begins in 2006.

The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It may revert back further, according to dealers such as Mark O’Byrne, a director at brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin.


Technical indicators are showing buy signals. The moving average convergence-divergence indicator has held above the so-called signal line since April 11, suggesting “there is more upside to silver,” said Gary Christie, a senior technical analyst at Trading Central in Ottawa.

“I wouldn’t short this,” Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading Corp. in Indianapolis, said in a phone interview. “Technically and fundamentally, silver is running.”

Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming?
Filed in Precious Metals by SRSrocco on April 19, 2016 • 13 Comments

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It looks like something big may happen to the silver market and the Chinese are preparing for it. After China launched it’s new Yuan Gold Fix today, the prices of the precious metals surged. At one point today, silver was up 5%. Silver is now trading at the $17 level, a price not seen in over a year.

Even though gold has taken center stage today due to Chinese rolling out there new Yuan Gold fix, something quite interesting has been taking place in the silver market over the past six months. While Comex silver inventories have been declining from a peak of 184 million oz (Moz) in July 2015 to 154 Moz today, silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been doing the exact opposite. And in a BIG WAY:
http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/up ... 16-NEW.png

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver inventories bottomed on August 20th 2015 at 233 metric tons (mt), or 7.5 Moz. However, silver inventories at the SHFE began to really pick up in 2016 as they surged to 802 mt in Jan from 596 mt in December. This continued at a more rapid pace during the next few months reaching a staggering 1,706 mt today (54.7 Moz).

Thus, silver inventories at the SHFE have more than tripled in less than six months. Why have the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories jumped this much in such a short time? Do the Chinese know something we don’t?

To give you an idea just how much the SHFE silver inventories have grown, let’s compare it to largest bullion bank Comex silver inventories in the world… JP Morgan. There’s been a lot of talk about the huge buildup of silver on JP Morgan’s Comex inventories. Here a chart of JP Morgan’s Comex silver inventories, courtesy of Nick Laird at Sharelynx.com:

http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/up ... Stocks.png

JP Morgan started accumulating silver right at the price of silver topped at $50 in 2011. In April 2012, JP Morgan had about 4 Moz of silver in its inventories. JP Morgan’s silver inventories continued to grow as the price of silver declined to a low of $14. Today, JP Morgan holds 69.4 Moz of silver in its Comex warehouses.

However, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories surged at a much more rapid rate. If we take a look at the chart below, you will see what I mean:

http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/up ... es-NEw.png

It took four years for JP Morgan to build their silver inventories from 4 Moz to 69.4 Moz today, whereas the SHFE silver stocks jumped from 7.5 Moz to 54.7 Moz in only eight months. And remember, most of the silver inventory gains at the SHFE came in the past four months.

Part of the reason for the increased silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was probably due to the Chinese government abolishing the ban on silver concentrate imports in November 2015. According to the article, China abolishes ban on silver concentrate ore imports, unwrought bismuth exports:

China has abolished its ban on imports of silver concentrate ore and its refined concentrates, as well as exports of unwrought bismuth effective November 10, the Ministry of Commerce said in a directive posted on its website Tuesday.

MOC said the abolition is due to those products having complied with the country’s industrial policy, do not belong to high-energy consuming and high polluting sectors, as well as having comparatively high technological content.

Regardless, the Shanghai Future Exchange silver inventories have never been this high before. The highest level they reached was 1,143 metric tons back in May 2013. For whatever reason, the SHFE is accumulating a lot of silver, and quickly.

http://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/up ... talled.png
As I mentioned in my previous article, Record Breaking Silver Factors In 2015 Can Make 2016 Quite Interesting:

India and China plan on adding a lot of Solar Power by 2020-2022. India plans to reach 100 gigawatts by 2022 and China 100 gigawatts by 2020. That will take a lot of silver.

Either way, China is accumulating a lot of silver compared to the net exports years ago. If the new Chinese yuan gold fix is going to put a lot of pressure on the U.S. Dollar in the future, mainstream investors may need to start protecting themselves now before it may be too late to acquire silver at a reasonable price.